Yesterday has come and gone. What about today? Tomorrow?
Published: Fri, 07/22/16
Politics was the vehicle. But it was supposed to be about defining your audience. Your crowd. Your tribe. Your cult.
Trump is great at that. Maybe none better in politics.
It was my most-opened email in a long time. And a lot of you responded. Some unsubscribed.
I get it.
I said Trump is going to win. Whether I like that notion or not is immaterial. It's just my best bet. Some people didn't like that I said it and told me so.
Here's a graph of the likelihood of Clinton or Trump winning. 3 weeks ago, Hillary had an 80 percent chance of winning. Yesterday, before the speech, that percentage was down to 60 percent.
That chart is by Five Thirty Eight's Nate Silver, the guy who correctly predicted almost every winner in the 2012 election (president on down the federal level).
My expectation is that the RNC will give Trump a "bump" and this graph will further converge.
But so what?
"This is a marketing list!" Right?
Indeed, it is. So what's any of this got to do with marketing? I guess I need not explain it again.
Just watch. The next big spectacle in this will be next week, in Pennsylvania, at the DNC. They're having their shindig and Clinton will be on display. She'll have picked her running mate by then (I think) and it will be very interesting to watch how both the Democrats behave and how the Republicans will respond.
I suspect there will be another "bounce" after the DNC, where Clinton's line in the above graph will rise a bit. Who knows by how much. And it will be especially interesting to see if it's a real jump or just a "dead cat bounce."
I didn't make up that term and I don't hate cats. It's a Wall Street term used to describe companies that are all but dead, whose stocks nevertheless rise again due to short-term buying in the off chance the company will right itself. Or to close "short positions."
Either way, time will tell and you can almost never predict these things - it's all 20/20 hindsight.
THEN, the debates begin. That's where the marketing really begins. Watch them. I guarantee you'll learn a few things.
Just look at them from the perspective of a marketer, rather than as a concerned citizen.
You'll sleep better at night, too :)
Until next time,
Bill
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